The impact of innovation policies on scientometric indicators: a study through the combination of punctuated equilibrium theory and synthetic control method

Abstract

The study considers the policies and budgetary review of the Brazilian innovation policies to suggest two significant punctuations during the period from 1995 to 2023. Supported by Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), the analysis reveals an expansion phase from 2007 to 2014, followed by a reduction period from 2015 to 2023. To assess the impact of these policy changes, the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is applied to measure the quantity and quality of documents published by Brazilian authors in the Web of Science database. Overall, the results confirm the expected effects on scientometric indicators: positive impacts during the expansion phase and negative impacts during the reduction phase. Notably, policy expansion had a more pronounced effect on publication volume than on citation impact. During the reduction period, collaborations with international and industrial partners strengthened as an alternative to limited national public funding. Additionally, the study highlights heterogeneous effects over time and demonstrates the efficacy of combining PET with SCM for evaluating public policies using panel data.